Zug/Zurich, 16 September 2019 – SUSI Partners has published its latest research on investment opportunities in electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. The whitepaper, authored in collaboration with Swiss-based consultancy INFRAS, provides an estimation of market developments in e-mobility and evaluates infrastructure-related business models.
The line of argumentation in short:
- To achieve the targeted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the transport sector, large-scale electrification of road transportation is required.
- EV uptake drives the need for an adequate charging infrastructure.
- The roll-out of EV charging infrastructure presents an investment opportunity for long-term capital, subject to availability of suitable business models.
In order to provide an adequate network of charging stations to match the projected increase in EV adoption, it is estimated that roughly 40-50 million charging stations will have to be installed until 2030. Of those, approximately one third would be public charging points and charging points installed in offices or other private destinations, which can be considered investable assets. This adds up to total capital requirements of USD 80-100 billion until 2030, based on our internal model.
Underlying this calculation is the insight – based on the latest life cycle assessment studies – that battery EVs are the most viable option in the passenger car segment from an ecological point of view. This will further increase as the energy mix becomes greener and batteries become more efficient.
Our evaluation of business models provides an estimation of their relevance for each of the three market segments – home charging, destination charging and fast charging. Most promising at this time are investment opportunities in destination charging relying on subscription and/or lease models, which can provide stable cashflows and are therefore protected from EV volume risk. Since the fast charging segment is structurally exposed to such risks, projects in this segment should come with guaranteed minimum usage (i.e. via EV fleet charging agreements). Overall, opportunities exist for infrastructure investors that can creatively structure and aggregate portfolios of projects and support developers in assembling projects with balanced and predictable cashflow profiles.
We are convinced that a holistic approach is required to advance the energy transition. Given that the extent to which EVs contribute to combating global warming also strongly depends on the electricity source used to charge the vehicles, a high share of renewables in the energy mix is crucial for the overall impact of transport electrification. We recognise these challenges and invest across all relevant segments including clean power generation, energy efficiency enhancements, and energy storage and integrated energy solutions. In line with this approach, we believe that progressing the journey towards a carbon-free transport sector by investing in EV charging infrastructure should be a contributing pillar of our overarching strategy.
The full whitepaper is available on request. Click here for more information.